The progress of technical implementation constitutes the core fluctuating variable. Currently, the delay in the mainnet 2.0 upgrade has reached 148 days, resulting in the theoretical throughput of 25,000 TPS only achieving the measured 1,200 TPS (data from the third-party auditing company CertiK). The activity indicator of the developer community has been continuously declining. The monthly code submission volume on GitHub has dropped to 67 times, a 41% decrease from the quarterly peak, directly affecting the expansion speed of the ecosystem. In similar cases, the 2023 Avalanche mainnet latency caused the quarterly DApp growth rate to plummet from 35% to 11%, and the token’s volatility rose to 68% during the same period. The cross-chain transaction cost has consistently been higher than that of competing products. The transaction fee of 0.12 US dollars per transaction is 400 times higher than Polkadot’s 0.0003 US dollars, which restricts users’ willingness to migrate.
The token economic mechanism causes an imbalance between supply and demand. An annual inflation rate of 5% generates daily selling pressure of 375,000 new coins (with a present value of approximately $318,000), but on-chain transaction data shows that the average daily net buying volume is only $194,000. What is more serious is that the project party will unlock 9% of the total supply of tokens (18 million) in October, equivalent to 22% of the current circulating shares, with potential selling pressure reaching 15.3 million US dollars. Historical lessons show that Optimism suffered a maximum 24-hour drop of 26% in a similar unlocking event in 2022, while MANGO’s staking participation rate was only 33%, making it even weaker in withstanding selling pressure. The concentration of coin holdings has continued to deteriorate. The top 10 addresses account for 44%, which is 17 percentage points higher than the industry average.
Market liquidity risk significantly amplifies price fluctuations. CoinGlass monitoring shows that the depth ratio of buy and sell orders on the exchange is unbalanced. The sell order wall at the $1.5 level has reached $7.3 million, while the buy order support below is only $1.9 million. The funding rate of the derivatives market has remained negative (-0.019%), and the open interest volume has shrunk by 31% in the past half month, indicating the accumulation of bearish sentiment. Quantitative analysis firm K33 research indicates that the correlation coefficient between MANGO price and Bitcoin reaches 0.82. When the monthly volatility of Bitcoin exceeds 30% (such as during the Silicon Valley Bank incident in March 2023), the average amplitude of MANGO expands to 55%. This feature forces most mango network price prediction models to increase the systemic risk weight of the crypto market to more than 40%.
Regulatory and competitive pressures reshape valuation benchmarks. The progress of the SEC lawsuit in the United States shows that 78% of PoS tokens are at risk of securitization (Reuters reported in August), while the top three entities of MANGO validators control 49% of the pledged equity, far above the decentralized threshold (below 30%). The ecological development indicators are comprehensively lagging behind: The number of cooperative projects is 91, which is only 21% of Polygon’s, and the daily active users are 123,000, a year-on-year decrease of 18%. The threat of technological iteration is particularly severe. The cross-chain transaction volume of the Cosmos IBC protocol exceeded 1.5 billion in a single month, with the transaction fee as low as $0.0001. However, the number of cross-chain transactions of MANGO during the same period dropped below 200,000 per day. Anti-money laundering risks have intensified uncertainties. Elliptic reported that suspicious transactions accounted for 2.3% of the chain, which may trigger regulatory reviews and lead to the delisting of compliant exchanges. These structural challenges have made the median valuation model of professional institutions 23% more conservative than retail investors’ predictions (Bloomberg Industry Research statistics), and the standard deviation of the target price is as high as ±31%.