According to Bloomberg’s 2024 Cryptocurrency Outlook report, pi’s price forecast indicates a target range of 98 to 137 for the next 12 months, based on the progress of its mainnet upgrade and the speed of its ecosystem expansion. Technical analysis shows that the 50-day moving average has broken through the 200-day moving average to form a golden cross, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at a healthy level of 62. On-chain data shows that the holding ratio of the top 100 addresses has dropped from 51% to 43%, reflecting the trend of portfolio diversification.
From a fundamental analysis perspective, the number of active users on Pi Network has exceeded 45 million, a 127% increase compared to the same period last year, with an average daily transaction volume reaching 380,000. The number of DApps within the ecosystem increased from 800 in Q1 to 2,200, and the total value locked (TVL) rose by 340% to reach 120 million US dollars. These indicators indicate that the network effect is accelerating its formation. Referring to similar data from the development stage of Ethereum in 2018, it suggests that a value discovery period may be entered.
Market sentiment indicators show that the open interest of futures contracts has increased by 170%, but the funding rate remains stable, indicating that the leverage risk is controllable. In Google Trends data, the search volume for “Pi Network” increased by 320% in Southeast Asia and 189% in North America. The social media sentiment index reached 72 (0-100 scale), an increase of 35 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. Historical data shows that after the index exceeds 70, it is usually accompanied by a positive price trend of 45 to 60 days.
In terms of the regulatory environment, the Dubai Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority has included it in the list of compliant tokens, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore is reviewing its application for a payment license. Referring to the XRP winning cases in 2023, the clarification of regulation usually leads to a price increase of 38% to 65% within 60 days. Currently, 78% of the tokens are still in a locked state. The supply pressure after full circulation needs to be digested by the development speed of the ecosystem.
In terms of technological upgrades, the zk-Rollups solution to be implemented in Q3 is expected to increase the transaction speed from the current 47TPS to 1000TPS and reduce Gas fees by 80%. Cross-chain bridge integration will increase the number of supported trading pairs from the current 36 to 120. These upgrades are similar to Polygon’s technological leap in 2021, when its token price rose by 423% within six months.
Risk factors include: The number of market makers is only 12, compared to the average of 45 for mainstream tokens. Insufficient liquidity depth may lead to a short-term volatility of up to 94.5%. The expected probability of the SEC approving an ETF is only 23%. If it fails to pass, it may cause a short-term correction. Experts suggest that the allocation ratio should not exceed 15% of the cryptocurrency investment portfolio and set a stop-loss range of 20%.